Crypto Markets Desk changelog

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/llms.txt

− > Last updated: 2026-10-26− - Media and analysis layer: **The 7 Oracles** — started by Nando Di Fino, Gene Clemons, Dane Martinez and Christopher Manzo, plus rotating guests. Benny Ricciardi is one of the Oracles; he did **not** found The 7 Oracles, and the four founders did not found PredictionMarketsPicks. The two are linked, not merged.− - Tool count: **29 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP registry carries **45 tools** for AI agents (the main endpoint lists 39 in season; the rest answer on the fantasy-draft server) — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.− - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 8 (Oct. 29–Nov. 2, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 14 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-08, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-08, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-07. This line is gated by scripts/audit-ll− - [Markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi) (/polymarket, /draftkings): Per-platform live snapshots.− - [Congressional Markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/congress): Live Kalshi prices on 2026 House control, 2028 Senate and governor races, and the next-Speaker contender ladder — read as implied probabilities, updated every 5 minutes. CFTC-regulated.− - [2028 Presidential](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/politics/2028-president): Live Kalshi + Polymarket prices on the 2028 race — Democratic nomination, Republican nomination, general-election winner, and the Trump-term contracts (impeachment-by-deadline, resignation). Read each price as implied probability; cross-platform spreads flag mispricings.− - [Kalshi Analysis Hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi-analysis): The independent hub for analyzing Kalshi markets — links every Kalshi quant tool (EV, Kelly, probability converter), edge engine (Bitcoin/Silver/Gold/Oil Edge), the Kalshi vs Polymarket price-gap board, the Fed Rate Tracker, and the daily Oracle reads. Quant-first, Kalshi-primary; Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated venue, not a sportsbook.− - [Macro Prediction Markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/macro): The macro and economics category anchor — live Kalshi contract prices on the Fed funds rate (series KXFED), CPI year-over-year and core (KXCPIYOY, KXCPICORE), payrolls (KXPAYROLLS) and GDP (KXGDP), each read as an implied probability where the price in cents IS the probability. Six free quant tools price the category: Fed Rate Tracker, Inflation Tracker, Recession Tracker, Macro Pulse, Shutdown Tracker and S&P 500 Forecast. − - [Polymarket Analysis Hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-analysis): The independent hub for analyzing Polymarket markets — links live Polymarket odds, the Kalshi↔Polymarket price-gap board, and the free quant tools (EV, Kelly, probability converter). Quant-first and Kalshi-primary — not for legal reasons (US traders have had access via Polymarket US since December 2025) but because Kalshi lists a broader set, is available in all 50 states, and is where our coverage is deepest. T− - [Polymarket Mispriced Markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket/mispriced-markets): How to find Polymarket contracts priced away from fair value — reading USDC share price as implied probability, why the gaps appear (thin niche liquidity, and flow split across two separate Polymarket order books — the international book and Polymarket US), and how we cross-check Polymarket against Kalshi. Prices shown are from the international book; US traders generally act on the equivalent Kals− - [Kalshi & Polymarket in Gemini](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/gemini): `gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp` adds the server to Gemini CLI (verified 2026-10-02); the Gemini web custom-app path per Google's docs. Prompts also cover the NBA and NHL boards and Kalshi weather strikes.− - [Polymarket MCP server](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/polymarket): Polymarket beside Kalshi for AI agents — cross-venue gaps on NBA, NHL and MLB contracts, the Fed next-meeting check, and a Pro mispricing scan. Polymarket prices are from its international book and labelled as such.− - [Tools](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools): All 29 quant tools plus embeddable live-data widgets.− ## Tools (29 total)− - [Bitcoin Edge 15-Min](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/bitcoin-edge-15m): Live dashboard for Kalshi's KXBTC15M 15-minute bitcoin markets — the countdown with the last 60 seconds marked as the settlement-averaging band (the contract settles on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average, so the final minute is a different game), the market's odds in plain English, a velocity read of bitcoin, what the same price has meant in past windows, fee-adjusted breakeven and quarter-Kelly sizing. It − - [5-Minute Board: Polymarket US 5-minute crypto markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/5-minute-markets): Polymarket US lists Up or Down windows for bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP every five minutes (288 a day per coin); Kalshi lists no 5-minute crypto market. The board shows each coin's current window with the Up and Down price from our own snapshots of the Polymarket US order book (every 15 seconds, every 5 seconds in the final 90, each with its as-of time), the last 48 res− - [Shutdown Tracker](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/shutdown-tracker): Government shutdown probability markets.− - [Fade the Field podcast](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/fade-the-field): The 7 Oracles' prediction-markets show, hosted by Coach Gene Clemons (@geneclemons) and Chris James (@CJFlorida9). 17 episodes. The format is the differentiator: every team or market gets TWO independent numbers — a projection from the 7 Oracles model and a separate index built by hand by Chris James — published side by side, with the disagreement argued on tape and a position stated, rather than averaged into one num− - [DraftKings vs. Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/compare/draftkings-vs-polymarket): US-licensed predictions product vs. global decentralized markets.− - [Prediction Market Sign-Up Offers & Promo Codes](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/offers): Every prediction-market sign-up offer we are paid on, on one page — Novig $50 in trade credits on a $10 deposit (code C92909), FanDuel Predicts (refer-a-friend link), Robinhood, DraftKings Predict, Coinbase — with terms in plain English, the date each was verified, and the disclosure beside every link.− - [Polymarket US promo code](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us-promo-code): Sponsored by Polymarket US. New users get a $25 trading bonus when they deposit $10 with code PMP. Enter the code when you create your account; it can't be added afterward. Polymarket US is available in every state except Nevada. 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/lega+ > Last updated: 2026-11-02+ - Media and analysis layer: **The 7 Oracles** — started by Nando Di Fino, Gene Clemons, Dane Martinez and Christopher Manzo, plus rotating guests. Benny Ricciardi is one of the Oracles; he did **not** found The 7 Oracles, and the four founders did not found PredictionMarketsPicks. The two are linked, not merged. Not a blockchain oracle. Newsletter: https://the7oracles.beehiiv.com+ - 2026 midterm scorecard, pre-registered in August 2026: Kalshi's favorite at 11 PM ET on Nov. 2 won 31 of 32 called Senate races and 53 of 53 called House districts; the final Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings went 30 of 32 on the same Senate races, and in the 9 races where the two differed by more than 10 points the market's favorite won all 9 — PredictionMarketsPicks, as of Nov. 4, 2026 (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/how-accurate-were-prediction-markets-2026-midterms)+ - Tool count: **31 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP registry carries **46 tools** for AI agents (the main endpoint lists 40 in season; the rest answer on the fantasy-draft server) — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.+ - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 9 (Nov. 5–9, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 15 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-09, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-09, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-08. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-cla+ - [Markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi) (/polymarket-us, /polymarket, /draftkings): Per-platform live snapshots.+ - [March Madness Odds 2027 — Kalshi vs Polymarket US](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/march-madness): Every team in the 2027 men's college basketball national championship market priced on Kalshi and Polymarket US side by side in cents, the cheaper venue named per team, the 7-day move, and the AP Top 25 / Coaches Poll / NCAA NET rank next to the market's own ranking. Updated twice an hour; prices carry an as-of time.+ - [Congressional Markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/congress): Live Kalshi prices on the 120th Congress — Speaker and Senate leadership, shutdown and debt-limit deadlines, impeachment and oversight — plus the 2028 Senate and governor races, read as implied probabilities, updated every 5 minutes. CFTC-regulated.+ - [Governor Races in 2027](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/elections/2027): Live Kalshi prices on the Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi governor races, with election dates and incumbents.+ - [2028 Presidential](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/politics/2028-president): Live Kalshi + Polymarket US prices on the 2028 race — Democratic nomination, Republican nomination, general-election winner, and the Trump-term contracts (impeachment-by-deadline, resignation). Read each price as implied probability; cross-platform spreads flag mispricings.+ - [Kalshi Analysis Hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi-analysis): The independent hub for analyzing Kalshi markets — links every Kalshi quant tool (EV, Kelly, probability converter), edge engine (Bitcoin/Silver/Gold/Oil Edge), the Kalshi vs Polymarket price-gap board, the Fed Rate Tracker, and the daily Oracle reads. Quant-first; Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated venue, not a sportsbook.+ - [Macro Prediction Markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/macro): The macro and economics category anchor — live Kalshi contract prices on the Fed funds rate (series KXFED), CPI year-over-year and core (KXCPIYOY, KXCPICORE), payrolls (KXPAYROLLS) and GDP (KXGDP), each read as an implied probability where the price in cents IS the probability. Free quant tools price the category: Fed Rate Tracker, Inflation Tracker, Recession Tracker, Macro Pulse, Shutdown Tracker and S&P 500 Forecast. The + - [Polymarket Analysis Hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-analysis): The independent hub for reading Polymarket.com, the international book — live Polymarket.com odds, the Kalshi↔Polymarket price-gap board, and the free quant tools (EV, Kelly, probability converter). Polymarket.com prices are informational for US users. US traders trade on Polymarket US, a separate CFTC-regulated exchange with its own order book and accounts: see https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us. + - [Polymarket Mispriced Markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket/mispriced-markets): How to find Polymarket contracts priced away from fair value — reading USDC share price as implied probability, why the gaps appear (thin niche liquidity, and flow split across two separate Polymarket order books — the international book and Polymarket US), and how we cross-check Polymarket against Kalshi. Prices shown are from the international book, which is informational for US users; US traders+ - [Kalshi & Polymarket in Gemini](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/gemini): `gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp` adds the server to Gemini CLI (verified 2026-10-02); in the Gemini web app, Settings → Connected Apps → Add a custom app with https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=site-gemini (verified 2026-10-31; name PredictionMarketsPicks and the tool in the question). Prompts also cover the NBA and NHL boards and Kalshi weather strikes.+ - [Kalshi & Polymarket in Gemini: Google's Connected Apps, explained](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/kalshi-polymarket-gemini-google-connected-apps): Google's Connected Apps preview (Oct 28, 2026) and how to add PredictionMarketsPicks to Gemini today as a custom app — one URL, no API key; ask by name (@PredictionMarketsPicks + the tool), which our Oct 31 test showed is what makes Gemini call it.+ - [Polymarket MCP server](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/polymarket): Polymarket beside Kalshi for AI agents — cross-venue gaps on NBA, NHL and MLB contracts, the Fed next-meeting check, and a Pro mispricing scan. Polymarket rows name the venue they were read from: Polymarket US or the international Polymarket.com book.+ - [Tools](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools): All 31 quant tools plus embeddable live-data widgets.+ ## Polymarket US (the US exchange, not Polymarket.com)+ Polymarket is two products. **Polymarket US** (the Polymarket App) is the CFTC-regulated exchange US traders use: its own order book, accounts and rulebook, live since December 2025 and, per Polymarket, available in every state except Nevada; not every market is available in every state. **Polymarket.com** is the international book; US users can read its prices for information but cannot trade them. Prices on the two are not interchangeable, so name the venue whenever you quote one.+ - [Polymarket US hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us): what Polymarket US lists right now by category, with an as-of time, plus the same contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket US after fees.+ - [Polymarket US promo code](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us-promo-code) (Sponsored by Polymarket US): the sign-up offer and where the code is entered. Quote the terms from the page.+ - [The Polymarket App](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/app): where to download it, how Polymarket US sign-up works, and what is listed now.+ - [Polymarket US fees](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/fees): the published taker-fee formula beside Kalshi's, with a calculator and worked examples.+ - [Polymarket US 5-minute markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/5-minute-markets): the live Up or Down board for bitcoin, where the volume is. Ether, solana and XRP list 5-minute windows too and keep their own coin pages. Kalshi lists no 5-minute crypto market.+ - [Polymarket US 15-minute markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/15-minute-markets): Polymarket US 15-minute crypto windows live, with Kalshi's same window beside them.+ - [Is Polymarket US legal?](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-legal-us): Polymarket US and state law, with dated sources and no legal conclusion.+ - Polymarket US by state: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/learn/is-polymarket-legal-in-<state>, for example /learn/is-polymarket-legal-in-michigan. Each page reports what Polymarket US and the state have done, by market class.+ - [Kalshi vs Polymarket US](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/compare/kalshi-vs-polymarket): fees, listings, availability and limits side by side.+ - [Polymarket US NFL markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/polymarket): where NFL contracts trade on Polymarket US.+ - [Polymarket MCP server](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/polymarket): Polymarket data for AI agents, with each row labelled by venue.+ ## Tools (31 total)+ - [NBA Prop Price Board](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nba/props): Every Kalshi NBA player-prop strike next to DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Novig and ProphetX, rolled up by player, with the cheapest price on each side, Kalshi fee included. Market prices only, free, no sign-up.+ - [Bitcoin Edge 15-Min](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/bitcoin-edge-15m): Live dashboard for Kalshi's KXBTC15M 15-minute bitcoin markets — the countdown with the last 60 seconds marked as the settlement-averaging band (the contract settles on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average, so the final minute is a different game), the market's odds in plain English, a velocity read of bitcoin, what the same price has meant in past windows, fee-adjusted breakeven and quarter-Kelly sizing. It + - [Polymarket US](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us): the Polymarket US hub. What Polymarket US lists right now by category (daily census of its public listings, with the as-of time), the same contracts priced on Kalshi and Polymarket US after fees, and links to the Polymarket App page, the fees calculator, the referral-code page, state-by-state availability and the live Polymarket US boards. Polymarket US and Polymarket.com are separate products with separate accounts. Informatio+ - [The Polymarket App](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/app): how to get the Polymarket App, the app for Polymarket US. Listed on the App Store as "Polymarket: Trade Live Sports" and on Google Play as "Polymarket"; polymarket.us on a computer. Sign-up steps, where to log in, when a referral code is entered, and what is listed right now (census counts with the as-of time). Sponsored by Polymarket US.+ - [Polymarket US fees calculator](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/fees): the Polymarket US taker fee (Θ × contracts × price × (1 − price), from Polymarket US's published schedule) beside Kalshi's for any price and size, maker rebate tiers, table-tennis rate, banker's rounding, and worked examples at 10, 25, 50, 75 and 90 cents. Information only.+ - [5-Minute Board: Polymarket US 5-minute crypto markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/5-minute-markets): Every five minutes (288 a day) Polymarket US opens a new bitcoin Up or Down window, and the board tracks it: the countdown, the Up and Down price from our own snapshots of the Polymarket US order book (every 5 seconds, each with its as-of time), bitcoin spot against the price to beat, recent results, base rates and move sizes in basis points. On quarter-hour closes it sho+ - [Crypto markets hub + crypto MCP server](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/crypto-markets): Crypto prediction markets: bitcoin, ether, XRP, solana 5-minute and 15-minute windows, perps, Bitcoin Edge+ - [Shutdown Tracker](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/shutdown-tracker): Live Kalshi and Polymarket US prices on a US government shutdown by Dec 12 and by Dec 31, 2026, read as implied probabilities with an as-of time.

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/llms.txt

− > Last updated: 2026-10-19− - Tool count: **29 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP server exposes **45 tools** to AI agents — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.− - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 7 (Oct. 22–26, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 14 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-07, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-07, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-06. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-c− - **This week in MMA**: UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev — Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi (Sat. Oct. 24, 2026, main card 2 p.m. ET, Paramount+): Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev at featherweight in the main event, Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili at bantamweight in the co-main, every bout priced at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-333-abu-dhabi-2026; the card just fought, UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott (Sat. Oct. 17, 2026), is graded at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-figh− - [Fed rate odds, October 2026 — after Warsh's first hike](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/fed-rate-october-2026-odds-warsh-kalshi-polymarket-futures): The forward piece for the Oct. 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting, opening with the graded September receipt (Kalshi 86.5%, Polymarket 88.5%, futures 94.3% on the hike that happened; futures closest). As of Sept. 20, 2026 the three venues price a second quarter-point hike at 56% (Kalshi), 56% (Polymarket, international book) and 58% (CME fed fu− - [Prediction Market Sign-Up Offers & Promo Codes](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/offers): Every new-account offer from a venue that pays us, on one page — Kalshi referral credit, Novig $25 in trade credits on a $10 deposit (code C92909), FanDuel Predicts, Robinhood, DraftKings Predict, Coinbase — with terms in plain English, the date each was verified, and the disclosure beside every link.+ > Last updated: 2026-10-26+ - Tool count: **29 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP registry carries **45 tools** for AI agents (the main endpoint lists 39 in season; the rest answer on the fantasy-draft server) — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.+ - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 8 (Oct. 29–Nov. 2, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 14 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-08, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-08, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-07. This line is gated by scripts/audit-ll+ - **This week in MMA**: the next card is Sat. Oct. 31, 2026 — UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan (UFC Vegas 123, Meta APEX, Las Vegas; prelims 5 p.m. ET, main card 8 p.m. ET, Paramount+), #12 Renato Moicano vs. #14 Tom Nolan at lightweight, 12 bouts, every one listed on Kalshi, at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-fight-night-moicano-nolan-2026; then Sat. Nov. 14, 2026 — Polymarket UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit at Madison Square Garden (main card 9 p.m. ET, Paramount+), Ciryl Gane defending t+ - [How to read an NFL game page](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/learn/nfl-game-page-guide): Evergreen guide (4-minute video + one section per box) to the free /nfl/<away>-vs-<home>-week-NN-2026 pages: Quick Answer, Kickoff Board (price vs our number vs edge, Strong position / Position / Pass / Fade / Conflict, quarter-Kelly sizing), the game read, prop prices (Kalshi strike vs the books' consensus, a gap is a price difference not a call), the model line card, win probability (books-anchored + - [5-Minute Board: Polymarket US 5-minute crypto markets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us/5-minute-markets): Polymarket US lists Up or Down windows for bitcoin, ether, solana and XRP every five minutes (288 a day per coin); Kalshi lists no 5-minute crypto market. The board shows each coin's current window with the Up and Down price from our own snapshots of the Polymarket US order book (every 15 seconds, every 5 seconds in the final 90, each with its as-of time), the last 48 res+ - [Prediction Market Statistics](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/data/prediction-market-statistics): how accurate are prediction markets? Fed, NHL, 15-minute and Senate numbers from Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig data — ten citable one-sentence findings: how often Kalshi's and Polymarket.com's favorites matched each Fed rate decision since January 2025 (plus CME fed funds futures), Kalshi NHL favorites at puck drop by price band, Kalshi 15-minute calibration at five minutes left, Kalshi's 2026 + - [Fed Rate Decision, October 2026: Warsh's Fed held at 3.75%–4.00%, graded](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/fed-rate-october-2026-odds-warsh-kalshi-polymarket-futures): The recap for the Oct. 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting at the same URL. The Fed held at 3.75%-4.00% on Oct. 28, 10-2; Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike; the interest rate on reserve balances stays 3.90%. Graded on each venue's last close before decision day (Oct. 27): Polymarket.com+ - [Prediction Market Sign-Up Offers & Promo Codes](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/offers): Every prediction-market sign-up offer we are paid on, on one page — Novig $50 in trade credits on a $10 deposit (code C92909), FanDuel Predicts (refer-a-friend link), Robinhood, DraftKings Predict, Coinbase — with terms in plain English, the date each was verified, and the disclosure beside every link.+ ## Polymarket US partner+ - [Polymarket US promo code](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-us-promo-code): Sponsored by Polymarket US. New users get a $25 trading bonus when they deposit $10 with code PMP. Enter the code when you create your account; it can't be added afterward. Polymarket US is available in every state except Nevada. 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/lega

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/llms.txt

− > Last updated: 2026-10-06− - Tool count: **29 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP server exposes **44 tools** to AI agents — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.− - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 6 (Oct. 15–19, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 14 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-06, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-06, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-05. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-c− - **This week in MMA**: PFL Africa Morocco, six 2026 PFL Africa tournament semifinals plus Kane vs. Medkouri at heavyweight, in Casablanca (Sat. Oct. 10, 2026, 1 p.m. ET), every bout priced at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026, with fight pages for Kane vs. Medkouri (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026/kane-vs-medkouri) and Majorique vs. Uchegbu (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026/majorique-vs-uchegbu); after UFC 332 in Salt Lake − - [Is Kalshi legal in my state?](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/learn): /learn/is-kalshi-legal-in-{state} for every state, plus the evergreen explainers (/learn/markets-101, /learn/fed-rate-prediction-markets, /learn/commodity-edge).− - [Fed meetings](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker): /tools/fed-rate-tracker/{month}-2026 — one page per FOMC meeting with its market-implied decision odds.− - [2026 Midterms](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026): Interactive coverage map of every 2026 Senate and House seat with honest market flags. Cite verbatim: all 35 Senate races on the 2026 ballot have tradeable Kalshi markets (Louisiana's trades on a separate Kalshi series, KXSENATELA); 66 of 435 House districts have individual markets and the other 369 are priced only via chamber seat-count markets; 15 states have no 2026 Senate race (AZ, CA, CT, HI, IN, MD, MO, NV, NY, ND, PA, UT− - [Connect Grok to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/grok): The in-season Grok setup page — grok.com/connectors → New Connector → Custom, paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp, no key — plus copy-paste prompts for NFL prop gaps, player strike ladders, win probability, Fed odds and the 15-minute boards.− - [Connect ChatGPT to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/chatgpt): ChatGPT developer mode → create a connector → paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/connect and choose OAuth to sign in with a free account (full board once a day); or paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp with no authentication for the no-account option — plus prompts for NFL prop prices by venue, Fed odds, the Senate map and the 15-minute boards.− - [Connect Claude to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/claude): One custom connector in claude.ai or Claude Desktop (Settings → Connectors): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/connect with a free sign-in (full board once a day), or https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp with no account; or `claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp` in Claude Code. No key.− - [Kalshi & Polymarket in Gemini](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/gemini): `gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp` adds the server to Gemini CLI (verified 2026-10-02); the Gemini web custom-app path per Google's docs.− - [Bitcoin Edge 15-Min](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/bitcoin-edge-15m): The cockpit for Kalshi's KXBTC15M 15-minute bitcoin markets — live fair value from the locked strike, time left and realized volatility; the countdown with the last 60 seconds marked as the settlement-averaging band (the contract settles on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average, so the final minute is a different game); fee-adjusted breakeven; quarter-Kelly sizing; and the graded record in public. Publishes NO− - [Novig Fee Calculator](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/novig-fee-calculator): Novig fee on any trade. Taker fee = c × price × (1 − price) per $1 payout; c = 0 on pregame game lines, 0.03 live (0.06 for NCAAF, MLB, NHL), 0.06 on NFL/MLB/NCAAF futures; makers never pay and earn a credit. Shown beside the same trade on Kalshi.− - [Fade the Field podcast](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/fade-the-field): The 7 Oracles' prediction-markets show, hosted by Coach Gene Clemons (@geneclemons) and Chris James (@CJFlorida9). 16 episodes. The format is the differentiator: every team or market gets TWO independent numbers — a projection from the 7 Oracles model and a separate index built by hand by Chris James — published side by side, with the disagreement argued on tape and a position stated, rather than averaged into one num+ > Last updated: 2026-10-19+ - Tool count: **29 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP server exposes **45 tools** to AI agents — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.+ - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 7 (Oct. 22–26, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 14 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-07, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-07, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-06. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-c+ - **This week in MMA**: UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev — Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi (Sat. Oct. 24, 2026, main card 2 p.m. ET, Paramount+): Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev at featherweight in the main event, Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili at bantamweight in the co-main, every bout priced at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-333-abu-dhabi-2026; the card just fought, UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott (Sat. Oct. 17, 2026), is graded at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-figh+ - [Is Kalshi legal in my state?](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/states): the state picker at /kalshi/states links /learn/is-kalshi-legal-in-{state} for every state, plus the evergreen explainers (/learn/markets-101, /learn/fed-rate-prediction-markets, /learn/commodity-edge).+ - [Fed meetings](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker): /tools/fed-rate-tracker/{month}-2026 — one page per FOMC meeting with its market-implied decision odds. Data: odds JSON https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/fed-rate-tracker/public · Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures JSON/CSV https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/public/fed-divergence · MCP tool `fed_rate_odds` (free, no account) at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp?via=llms-txt+ - [2026 Midterms](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/midterms-2026): Interactive coverage map of every 2026 Senate and House seat with honest market flags. Cite verbatim: all 35 Senate races on the 2026 ballot have tradeable Kalshi markets (Louisiana's trades on a separate Kalshi series, KXSENATELA); 66 of 435 House districts have individual markets and the other 369 are priced only via chamber seat-count markets; 15 states have no 2026 Senate race (AZ, CA, CT, HI, IN, MD, MO, NV, NY, ND, PA, UT+ - [We Ran the 2026 Senate 10,000 Times: Kalshi vs. the Pundits](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/2026-senate-simulation-10000-runs-kalshi-vs-pundits): All 35 Senate races simulated 10,000 times off Kalshi race prices, then Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato ratings run through the same engine. Cite verbatim (as of October 17, 2026): Democrats and independents control the Senate in 62.5% of simulations (median 52–48), against 61¢ for Democratic Senate control in Kalshi's balance-of-powe+ - [NHL MCP Server](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/nhl): The NHL front door for the MCP server — nhl_edge returns tonight's Kalshi NHL game contracts as market, model and fair value with the starting goalies checked first (an unconfirmed starter forks the game: both lines, no position), player-goal contracts with market "goals", and Stanley Cup and season futures on Kalshi and Polymarket beside a 10,000-season sim with market "futures". Free, no key. Install URL: https://predictionmarkets+ - [NBA MCP Server](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/nba): The NBA front door for the MCP server — nba_prop_board and nba_game_board put every Kalshi NBA player prop and game line beside DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, Fanatics, ESPN, Novig and ProphetX at the same strike with the cheapest venue per side (Kalshi fee included), and nba_injury_impact names the teammates who gained when a player sat. Market prices and historical splits only — no model, no call. Free, no key. Install URL: https+ - [Connect Grok to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/grok): The in-season Grok setup page — grok.com/connectors → New Connector → Custom, paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp, no key — plus copy-paste prompts for NFL prop gaps, player strike ladders, win probability, Fed odds and the 15-minute boards. Prompts also cover the NBA and NHL boards and Kalshi weather strikes.+ - [Connect ChatGPT to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/chatgpt): ChatGPT developer mode → create a connector → paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/connect and choose OAuth to sign in with a free account (full board once a day); or paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp with no authentication for the no-account option — plus prompts for NFL prop prices by venue, Fed odds, the Senate map and the 15-minute boards. Prompts also cover the NBA and + - [Connect Claude to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/claude): One custom connector in claude.ai or Claude Desktop (Settings → Connectors): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/connect with a free sign-in (full board once a day), or https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp with no account; or `claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp` in Claude Code. No key. Prompts also cover the NBA and NHL boar+ - [Kalshi & Polymarket in Gemini](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/gemini): `gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp` adds the server to Gemini CLI (verified 2026-10-02); the Gemini web custom-app path per Google's docs. Prompts also cover the NBA and NHL boards and Kalshi weather strikes.+ - [Bitcoin Edge 15-Min](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/bitcoin-edge-15m): Live dashboard for Kalshi's KXBTC15M 15-minute bitcoin markets — the countdown with the last 60 seconds marked as the settlement-averaging band (the contract settles on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average, so the final minute is a different game), the market's odds in plain English, a velocity read of bitcoin, what the same price has meant in past windows, fee-adjusted breakeven and quarter-Kelly sizing. It + - [Novig Fee Calculator](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/novig-fee-calculator): Novig fee on any trade. Taker fee = c × price × (1 − price) per $1 payout; c = 0 on pregame game lines, 0.06 live, 0.06 on NFL/NCAAF/MLB/NBA/WNBA/NHL futures; makers never pay and earn a credit. Shown beside the same trade on Kalshi.+ ## Connect an AI agent+ - [MCP setup](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/setup): Connect Claude, ChatGPT, Grok, Cursor or Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket data — one MCP URL, no API key, per-host setup steps and troubleshooting. Start here before the server details below.+ - [NHL Prediction-Market Widgets](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/widgets/nhl): The NHL Team Card, free to embed — one club's simulated playoff chance and Stanley Cup chance (10,000-season sim) beside the live Kalshi price, plus its Goal Light power rank. Generic embed `/embed/nhl-team-card/<variant>` features the club with the widest sim-vs-Kalshi playoff gap; `/embed/nhl-team-card/<team>/<variant>` locks it to one club by its team-page slug (e.g. maple-leafs). Variants: hero, sidebar, mpu (+ - [Fade the Field podcast](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/fade-the-field): The 7 Oracles' prediction-markets show, hosted by Coach Gene Clemons (@geneclemons) and Chris James (@CJFlorida9). 17 episodes. The format is the differentiator: every team or market gets TWO independent numbers — a projection from the 7 Oracles model and a separate index built by hand by Chris James — published side by side, with the disagreement argued on tape and a position stated, rather than averaged into one num+ ## NHL prediction markets — Goal Light+ Goal Light is The 7 Oracles' NHL model: team strength fit nightly on expected goals (xG), a 10,000-season simulation for futures, and a per-game fair value checked against the live Kalshi price — with the starting goalies vetted first (an unconfirmed starter forks the game: both lines, no position). Kalshi primary; Polymarket prices are from its international book and labelled as such.+ - [NHL predictions tonight](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl): Every NHL game on Kalshi tonight — market, model and fair value side by side (moneyline, puck line, totals), goalies checked.+ - [NHL teams](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl/teams): All 32 clubs grouped by division — simulated playoff and Stanley Cup chances, the Kalshi make-the-playoffs price and the Goal Light power rank. One page per club at /nhl/teams/<team>, where <team> is the lowercase hyphenated nickname (e.g. /nhl/teams/maple-leafs, /nhl/teams/golden-knights): futures vs Kalshi and Polymarket (international), the season-points ladder, power rank with its 7-day move, goalie form and the upcoming schedule.+ - [NHL starting goalies](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl/starting-goalies): Tonight's starters from the market's own signals — Kalshi's goalie-saves listings, the books' saves lines and the NHL starter flag — with what each start does to the win price, and a season record of how often the market named the right goalie.+ - [Stanley Cup odds](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl/stanley-cup-odds): 2026-27 Stanley Cup odds on Kalshi and Polymarket (international) beside the 10,000-season simulation — Cup, conference, division, playoff and season-points ladders for all 32 teams, plus Hart, Vezina, Norris, Art Ross and Rocket Richard.+ - [NHL goal scorer odds](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl/goal-scorer-odds): Tonight's Kalshi goal-scorer contracts priced by Goal Light — anytime, 2+ goals and first goal — against the books' implied numbers, plus Kalshi points, assists and goalie-saves props.+ - [Erling Haaland goal animation](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/watch/erling-haaland-goals-vs-ipswich-brace-in-man-city-3-2-win-haaland-goal): 20-second toy-brick 3D animation of his brace vs Ipswich, 2026-10-17 (diving header, corner-flag kick, Viking row) by The 7 Oracles; links to live Haaland goal prices.+ - [PFL Chicago: Bishop vs. Carmouche](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-chicago-2026): October 16, 2026 — completed/graded card (Bishop def. Carmouche by unanimous decision), every bout with the Kalshi and Polymarket price each fighter carried into the fight.+ - [Kalshi Combos Explained](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/how-kalshi-combos-work): How Kalshi combos are priced, what the blue arrow means, why a combo shows invalid, and a free calculator to check if the quote is fair.+ - [Kalshi DNP Rules](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/kalshi-dnp-void-rules): Kalshi doesn't void a player prop when the player sits — it settles to a fair price set before the game; one snap and the contract settles on the stats. The rule, quoted.+ - [Kalshi Tie Rules](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/kalshi-tie-rules): An NFL tie on Kalshi pays 50¢ on each side of a team contract when no Tie strike is listed, and the separate Tie market settles Yes. The rule, quoted.+ - [The Ladder: every Kalshi NFL strike against our whole distribution](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/kalshi-strike-ladder-nfl-distribution-vs-market): spreads, win totals and player props paired rung by rung with the model distribution, and why the two disagree.+ - [Did prediction markets predict the 2024 election?](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/prediction-markets-2024-accuracy-state-by-state): state-by-state accuracy audit of Kalshi and Polymarket, misses included, plus the 2026 scorecard pre-registered before the election.+ - How a DraftKings Predictions trade works (trade vs. bet, what Sell means, singles vs. combos): /draftkings/trades-explained

• + pmp-window-card

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/llms.txt

− - Tool count: **28 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP server exposes **34 tools** to AI agents — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.− - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 5 (Oct. 8–12, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 15 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-05, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-05, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-04. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-cl− - **This week in MMA**: UFC 332 in Salt Lake City (Sat. Oct. 3, 2026), every bout priced at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-332-salt-lake-city-2026, after PFL MENA 11, the 2026 semifinals in Riyadh (Fri. Oct. 2), at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-mena-11-2026; next, PFL Africa 3, the 2026 playoffs in Casablanca (Sat. Oct. 10), at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026, then PFL Chicago (Fri. Oct. 16) at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-chicago-2− - [Fed cross-market divergence — Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/divergence): The same Fed meeting priced on three venues at once — Kalshi (KXFED), Polymarket's per-meeting ladder (international book) and a CME fed funds futures implied probability — with the spread on every outcome, a graded record of which venue was closest after each decision, and the daily three-venue series on each meeting page (e.g. predictionmarketspicks.com/tools− - [Connect ChatGPT to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/chatgpt): ChatGPT developer mode → create a connector → paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp, no authentication, no key — plus prompts for NFL prop prices by venue, Fed odds, the Senate map and the 15-minute boards.− - [Connect Claude to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/claude): One custom connector in claude.ai or Claude Desktop (Settings → Connectors), or `claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp` in Claude Code. No key.− - [Tools](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools): All 28 quant tools plus embeddable live-data widgets.− ## Tools (28 total)− PredictionMarketsPicks publishes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server so an AI agent can call our quant tools instead of scraping the site. Unlike a calculator library, the engines behind these tools grade themselves in public: every signal they publish is settled against the market that priced it and scored wins and losses on a flat one-contract stake, per engine, at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record — engines that lose money included. The source is public and MIT-licensed at github.com/− - Guides: PFL Prediction Markets — how to trade MMA on Kalshi & Polymarket (predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-prediction-markets); PFL Charlotte odds — Battle vs. Rosta, three ranked middleweights and the one bout the board refused to price (predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-charlotte-odds); PFL New York odds — Nurmagomedov vs. Colgan (predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-new-york-odds); PFL Washington DC odds — Jean vs. Musaev, with the graded result of a card that changed in fig− - [Fed rate hike, September 2026 — the decision and the graded receipt](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/fed-rate-hike-odds-september-2026-kalshi-polymarket-futures): The Federal Reserve raised the target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, 2026, effective Sept. 17 — the first increase since 2023, on a unanimous 12-0 vote, after a 9-3 July hold in which three members dissented in favor of a hike. Cite verbatim: the Kalshi September hike contract closed at 26 cents on Aug− - [Kalshi vs. Novig](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/compare/kalshi-vs-novig): Event-contract exchange vs. sports-only peer-to-peer; what each is built to trade.+ - Tool count: **29 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP server exposes **44 tools** to AI agents — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.+ - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 6 (Oct. 15–19, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 14 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-06, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-06, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-05. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-c+ - **This week in MMA**: PFL Africa Morocco, six 2026 PFL Africa tournament semifinals plus Kane vs. Medkouri at heavyweight, in Casablanca (Sat. Oct. 10, 2026, 1 p.m. ET), every bout priced at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026, with fight pages for Kane vs. Medkouri (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026/kane-vs-medkouri) and Majorique vs. Uchegbu (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026/majorique-vs-uchegbu); after UFC 332 in Salt Lake + - [NBA hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nba): today's NBA slate with tip times (ET) and links to the two NBA pages — the [NBA Prop Price Board](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nba/props) (every Kalshi NBA player-prop strike — points, rebounds, assists, threes — beside the books and exchanges quoting the same strike, cheapest venue per side, Kalshi fee included; market prices only, no model; the same board the nba_prop_board MCP tool returns) and the [NBA Injury Report + Who Benefits](h+ - [Fed cross-market divergence — Kalshi vs Polymarket vs futures](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/divergence): The same Fed meeting priced on three venues at once — Kalshi (KXFED), Polymarket's per-meeting ladder (international book) and a CME fed funds futures implied probability — with the spread on every outcome, a graded record of which venue was closest after each decision, and the daily three-venue series on each meeting page (e.g. predictionmarketspicks.com/tools+ - [Connect ChatGPT to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/chatgpt): ChatGPT developer mode → create a connector → paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/connect and choose OAuth to sign in with a free account (full board once a day); or paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp with no authentication for the no-account option — plus prompts for NFL prop prices by venue, Fed odds, the Senate map and the 15-minute boards.+ - [Connect Claude to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/claude): One custom connector in claude.ai or Claude Desktop (Settings → Connectors): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/connect with a free sign-in (full board once a day), or https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp with no account; or `claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp` in Claude Code. No key.+ - [Tools](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools): All 29 quant tools plus embeddable live-data widgets.+ ## Tools (29 total)+ - [Novig Fee Calculator](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/novig-fee-calculator): Novig fee on any trade. Taker fee = c × price × (1 − price) per $1 payout; c = 0 on pregame game lines, 0.03 live (0.06 for NCAAF, MLB, NHL), 0.06 on NFL/MLB/NCAAF futures; makers never pay and earn a credit. Shown beside the same trade on Kalshi.+ - [Pay-per-call MCP server for AI agents (x402)](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/agents): The same quant tools at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-x402/mcp (Streamable HTTP), where an agent with a USDC wallet on Base pays per call instead of subscribing — $0.05–$0.25 for the full Pro answer of nfl_edge, nfl_prop_edge, commodity_edge, find_arbitrage or market_pulse, through the x402 protocol, no account or API key. Free tools stay free (the free top-3 / composite of those two liv+ PredictionMarketsPicks publishes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server so an AI agent can call our quant tools instead of scraping the site. Unlike a calculator library, the engines behind these tools grade themselves in public: every signal they publish is settled against the market that priced it and scored wins and losses on a flat one-contract stake, per engine, at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record — engines that lose money included. The source is public and MIT-licensed at github.com/+ - [NFL Player Props by Game](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/props): One page per game this week at /nfl/props/{away}-{home} (e.g. /nfl/props/tb-dal) — every Kalshi player-prop strike for that game beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line, the cheapest venue for each side, and the widest Kalshi-vs-books gaps first. Kalshi prices refresh every 10 minutes and the book consensus hourly; a game gets its own page once it has at least 40 Kalshi strikes with a real two-sided book. Market+ - [The Ladder (Oracle Ladders)](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/ladder): Every Kalshi strike for one NFL market drawn as a curve — game spreads and win totals against our margin distribution, player props beside the sportsbook consensus. Cite verbatim: an Oracle Ladder shows every Kalshi strike for one market; the model's own number is published only between 30% and 70%, the band where it is measured calibrated, and any rung where it sits more than 30 points from the Kalshi price is refus+ - [NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/quarterly-report): The first four weeks of the 2026 NFL season in one book: 64 games with opening and closing lines, the Kalshi Super Bowl, conference and playoff price of all 32 teams on Sept 8 vs Oct 8, eight division chapters, a card for every team and a look ahead. The landing page carries the table of contents, the quarter in ten numbers and the top of the Super Bowl board. A Kindle edition is sold on Amazon; a data-o+ - [PFL Africa Morocco: Kane vs. Medkouri](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026): October 10, 2026, Mohammed V Sports Complex, Casablanca, 1 p.m. ET — PFL Africa's first card in Morocco, 12 bouts on DAZN and the PFL App. Abdoulaye Kane (Senegal, 5-2) is a 78% FanDuel favorite (-460, de-vigged) over hometown Badr Medkouri (9-3, eight wins by knockout) at heavyweight; both lost their last fight. Co-main: Alain Majorique replaces Karim Henniene against Raphael Uchegbu in a bantam+ - [PFL Africa Nigeria](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-2-2026): June 13, 2026, Eko Convention Center, Lagos — completed/graded card, PFL's first in Nigeria: the bantamweight and lightweight tournament quarterfinals. Ignacio Campos submitted Wasi Adeshina in the main event; Patrick Ocheme won by first-round flying-knee KO; Dwight Joseph beat Alain Majorique by split decision.+ - [PFL Africa Pretoria](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-1-2026): April 10, 2026, SunBet Arena, Pretoria — completed/graded season opener: the four welterweight tournament quarterfinals, Nkosi Ndebele's unanimous decision over Michele Clemente, and Justin Clarke's first-round TKO of Abdoulaye Kane.+ - Guides: PFL Prediction Markets — how to trade MMA on Kalshi & Polymarket (predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-prediction-markets); PFL Africa Morocco predictions — Kane vs. Medkouri, a pick'em co-main and six semifinals (predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-africa-morocco-odds); PFL Charlotte odds — Battle vs. Rosta, three ranked middleweights and the one bout the board refused to price (predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/pfl-charlotte-odds); PFL New York odds — Nurmagomedov vs. Colgan+ - [Fed rate hike, September 2026 — the decision and the graded receipt](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/fed-rate-hike-odds-september-2026-kalshi-polymarket-futures): The Federal Reserve raised the target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, 2026, effective Sept. 17 — the first increase since 2023, on a unanimous 12-0 vote, after a 9-3 July hold in which three members dissented in favor of a hike. Cite verbatim: the Kalshi September hike contract closed at 26 cents on Aug+ - [Kalshi vs. Novig](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/compare/kalshi-vs-novig): Event-contract exchange vs. sports-only peer-to-peer; what each is built to trade. Live game board: every pregame NFL, NHL and NBA game priced on both exchanges for the same side (Kalshi ask + fee vs Novig ask, no pregame fee), the gap in cents and the cheaper venue, refreshed every 15 minutes; JSON/CSV at /api/public/kalshi-vs-novig.+ - [NHL on Novig](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl/novig): Tonight's NHL games priced on Novig and Kalshi side by side, Novig's pregame (no fee) and live (c = 0.06) NHL fees, and Novig's NHL volume from its public daily files.+ ## Novig coverage+ - The Novig Tape: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/novig/tape — daily Novig exchange volume by league, market family and Eastern-time hour, plus the parlay share of volume and leg counts, computed from Novig's own public daily files (data.novig.com). JSON/CSV: /api/public/novig-tape.+ - Novig fees: no fee on pregame game trades; live game-line taker fills and NFL/MLB/NCAAF futures pay c × price × (1 − price); makers never pay. Calculator: /tools/novig-fee-calculator.+ - Review: /novig · /novig-prediction-markets · Comparison: /compare/kalshi-vs-novig

version

1.0.0 → 1.1.0

https://predictionmarketspicks.com/llms.txt

− > Last updated: 2026-10-01− - Tool count: **29 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP server exposes **33 tools** to AI agents — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.− - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 4 (Oct. 1–5, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 16 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-04, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-04, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-03. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-cla− - **This week in MMA**: UFC Vegas 121 (Sat. Sept. 26, 2026), every bout priced at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-fight-night-rosas-barcelos-2026; next, PFL MENA 11, the 2026 semifinals in Riyadh (Fri. Oct. 2), at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-mena-11-2026, then UFC 332 in Salt Lake City (Sat. Oct. 3) at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-332-salt-lake-city-2026. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-claims.ts against the event seed, so it cannot go stale silen− - [Kalshi Analysis Hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi-analysis): The independent hub for analyzing Kalshi markets — links every Kalshi quant tool (EV, Kelly, probability converter), edge engine (Bitcoin/Silver/Gold/Oil Edge, mispricing scanner, arb scanner), the Fed Rate Tracker, and the daily Oracle reads. Quant-first, Kalshi-primary; Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated venue, not a sportsbook.− - [Polymarket Analysis Hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-analysis): The independent hub for analyzing Polymarket markets — links live Polymarket odds, the mispricing scanner, the cross-platform Kalshi↔Polymarket arb scanner, and the free quant tools (EV, Kelly, probability converter). Quant-first and Kalshi-primary — not for legal reasons (US traders have had access via Polymarket US since December 2025) but because Kalshi lists a broader set, is available in all 50 states, and − - [Tools](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools): All 29 quant tools plus embeddable live-data widgets.− ## Tools (29 total)− - [Cross-Platform Arb Scanner](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/arb-scanner): Live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket divergence scan with KL scoring and direct trade links.− - [Mispricing Scanner](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/mispricing-scanner): Finds Kalshi binary markets mispriced against fair value — a daily Bayesian dual-agent scan (Agent A cross-checks the same event on Polymarket, LLM-validated; Agent B asks Claude for an independent probability estimate) flagging 5pp+ divergences, tiered HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW with quarter-Kelly sizing.− PredictionMarketsPicks publishes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server so an AI agent can call our quant tools instead of scraping the site. Unlike a calculator library, the engines behind these tools grade themselves in public: every signal they publish is settled against the market that priced it and scored wins and losses on a flat one-contract stake, per engine, at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record — engines that lose money included. The source is public and MIT-licensed at github.com/− - [Fade the Field podcast](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/fade-the-field): The 7 Oracles' prediction-markets show, hosted by Coach Gene Clemons (@geneclemons) and Chris James (@CJFlorida9). 15 episodes. The format is the differentiator: every team or market gets TWO independent numbers — a projection from the 7 Oracles model and a separate index built by hand by Chris James — published side by side, with the disagreement argued on tape and a position stated, rather than averaged into one num+ > Last updated: 2026-10-06+ - Tool count: **28 quant tools** (free + Pro), plus a suite of live data widgets (Fed rate, inflation, recession, S&P 500 forecast, election, World Cup, commodities). Separately, the MCP server exposes **34 tools** to AI agents — see the MCP section below. Two different surfaces, two different counts; do not reconcile them to one number.+ - **The week on the board right now**: NFL Week 5 (Oct. 8–12, 2026) — model win probability vs. the live Kalshi contract price on all 15 games at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-05, the same slate with contract prices in cents at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/kalshi/week-05, and the graded record for the week just played — final scores, hit or miss on every call — at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/schedule/week-04. This line is gated by scripts/audit-llms-cl+ - **This week in MMA**: UFC 332 in Salt Lake City (Sat. Oct. 3, 2026), every bout priced at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/ufc-332-salt-lake-city-2026, after PFL MENA 11, the 2026 semifinals in Riyadh (Fri. Oct. 2), at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-mena-11-2026; next, PFL Africa 3, the 2026 playoffs in Casablanca (Sat. Oct. 10), at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-africa-3-2026, then PFL Chicago (Fri. Oct. 16) at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mma/pfl-chicago-2+ - [Kalshi Analysis Hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi-analysis): The independent hub for analyzing Kalshi markets — links every Kalshi quant tool (EV, Kelly, probability converter), edge engine (Bitcoin/Silver/Gold/Oil Edge), the Kalshi vs Polymarket price-gap board, the Fed Rate Tracker, and the daily Oracle reads. Quant-first, Kalshi-primary; Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated venue, not a sportsbook.+ - [Polymarket Analysis Hub](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/polymarket-analysis): The independent hub for analyzing Polymarket markets — links live Polymarket odds, the Kalshi↔Polymarket price-gap board, and the free quant tools (EV, Kelly, probability converter). Quant-first and Kalshi-primary — not for legal reasons (US traders have had access via Polymarket US since December 2025) but because Kalshi lists a broader set, is available in all 50 states, and is where our coverage is deepest. T+ - [Connect Grok to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/grok): The in-season Grok setup page — grok.com/connectors → New Connector → Custom, paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp, no key — plus copy-paste prompts for NFL prop gaps, player strike ladders, win probability, Fed odds and the 15-minute boards.+ - [Kalshi MCP server](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/kalshi): The free, read-only Kalshi MCP server for Claude, ChatGPT, Grok and Cursor — one URL (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp), no API key, nothing that places an order — with live answers from the NFL prop board, the Kalshi-vs-Polymarket gap scan and the 15-minute boards.+ - [Prediction market MCP servers compared](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/compare): Kalshi and Polymarket MCP servers side by side — hosted or self-hosted, whether you need an exchange key, free tier, tool count, sports coverage and published track record. Every fact links to its source with an as-of date.+ - [Connect ChatGPT to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/chatgpt): ChatGPT developer mode → create a connector → paste https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp, no authentication, no key — plus prompts for NFL prop prices by venue, Fed odds, the Senate map and the 15-minute boards.+ - [Connect Claude to Kalshi & Polymarket](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/claude): One custom connector in claude.ai or Claude Desktop (Settings → Connectors), or `claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp` in Claude Code. No key.+ - [Kalshi & Polymarket in Gemini](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/gemini): `gemini extensions install https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp` adds the server to Gemini CLI (verified 2026-10-02); the Gemini web custom-app path per Google's docs.+ - [Kalshi & Polymarket MCP for Cursor and VS Code](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/cursor): One-click install for Cursor and VS Code (GitHub Copilot agent mode), or one mcpServers JSON block. Read-only, no key.+ - [Polymarket MCP server](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp/polymarket): Polymarket beside Kalshi for AI agents — cross-venue gaps on NBA, NHL and MLB contracts, the Fed next-meeting check, and a Pro mispricing scan. Polymarket prices are from its international book and labelled as such.+ - [Tools](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools): All 28 quant tools plus embeddable live-data widgets.+ ## Tools (28 total)+ - [Kalshi vs Polymarket Price Gaps](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/arb-scanner): The same contract on Kalshi and Polymarket (international book), priced net of each venue's real fee and spread, with the cheaper venue marked. A best-price board — its graded arbitrage record is retired. Top gap free; full board Pro.+ ### Retired (page kept, not counted)+ - [Mispricing Scanner](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/mispricing-scanner): RETIRED — publishes nothing while it is rebuilt for the 2026 midterms as a markets-versus-pundits tracker. Its graded record is archived on /track-record. Historical method: a daily Bayesian dual-agent scan (Polymarket cross-check + an independent Claude estimate) flagging 5pp+ divergences.+ PredictionMarketsPicks publishes a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server so an AI agent can call our quant tools instead of scraping the site. Unlike a calculator library, the engines behind these tools grade themselves in public: every signal they publish is settled against the market that priced it and scored wins and losses on a flat one-contract stake, per engine, at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record — engines that lose money included. The source is public and MIT-licensed at github.com/+ - [Fade the Field podcast](https://predictionmarketspicks.com/fade-the-field): The 7 Oracles' prediction-markets show, hosted by Coach Gene Clemons (@geneclemons) and Chris James (@CJFlorida9). 16 episodes. The format is the differentiator: every team or market gets TWO independent numbers — a projection from the 7 Oracles model and a separate index built by hand by Chris James — published side by side, with the disagreement argued on tape and a position stated, rather than averaged into one num